All right, what is really the overview over the war in the Middle East?

The international pressure on both Hamas and Israel is very high. Everybody around just wants the war to stop. Egypt is pressuring Hamas, the Arab Kingdoms is pressuring Hamas, Iran is not really getting into the mix.

Why, because nobody really wants the war.

So what is really the intellectual framework we can try and put around the conflict?

At one hand, we have the experience of the First and Second World War. Here France put a very high price on the German economy after the first world war, to recompensate for the cost of the First World War. This lead to inflation in Germany, that then again led to the Second World War. We have to be careful not putting too much pressure on the citizens of the countries that we win over, or they will rebel, and do something even worse.

At the other hand, there is the whole Machiavellian stance, that is like “be real!”, if people have some kind of chance to rebel they will do it, you can never trust those you have conquered.

So the truth lie in-between.

My point is, we have to find a peace deal, that does not pressure too much, and not too little. It is a balance.

Looking at the negotiation position. We are late to the game, but we have pretty strong hand.

The Americans have, because they want to bring peace, already been negotiating with the Arabs, bringing a lot of pressure on Hamas, and that is absolutely a boon for us. BUT, the Americans have recommendations or demands. Mr. Biden wants a two state solution. So there is already a frame to the negotiations, that we cannot just put aside. So to be realistic, we have to find some kind of compromise within that frame.

To the benefit of our negation stance. We at one hand have a lot of backing, and nobody wants Hamas to lead the state of Palestine, they want it to be a state that is lead by someone who can secure a peace after the war.

And that is really the game changer, as I see it. The two state solution has to be a neutral version in the Palestinian end of things, to secure the peace.

War starts when diplomacy ends, and we have a strong hand right now in terms of negotiation. We should, at least be a strong part of the negotiations. I mean, if we stay out of the negotiations, we only loose the initiative, which was what happened in the sixdays war.

We won the war, but really lost a lot on terms of negotiation, because we did not start that process soon enough.

G-d bless the win we can find, if we play the game with determination and exceptional skill.