We are moving into a war in Syria, this war has to be prepared with the utmost care to all the details of such an enterprise. We should try to foresee all the different scenarios that might happen.

First of all, the most dangerous outcome of the conflict would be the massacre of the Alawis. The Alawis are extremely scared with the prospect of total annihilation of their people, with good cause; they have tyrannized the Sunnis for over five decades, and this leads to a lot of animosity. But we cannot tolerate an annihilation of the Alawis, if that is the result, our energy and resources used in the war would be lost. The ethical course of our war would not be set right, and we would lose all respect, and rightfully so.

So we need our side to promise a fair treatment of the Alawis when and if they win. We have to look them in their eyes and tell them; do not kill all the Alawis, and we should be prepared to support the Alawis in the case of a general crackdown.

I still opt for a two state solution, where the Alawis and the Sunnis have each a sovereign nation to protect them, it would lead to peace on the long run.

The Saudis are opting for a victory, and they will probably have it. As I have said before; I do not support kingdoms, but there is a compromise that might work for the Saudis, in the rebuilding of a Sunni/Syrian state; a democracy including a house of royalty. In Denmark and most other northern european kingdoms this structure is working quite good, and it would also work within the theory of democracy. It could be done; the Saudis could send a prince to rule the armed forces and the police. This model could also be implemented in Saudi arabia in the long run. We still have to quit all the warmongering and infiltration of the west by the Saudiarabian. We are supposed to be friends and allies. But we should also find compromises, this is an option.

Then on to the other possible challenges we might meet in an offensive against Assad. Ahmadinejad; he will use the war as an excuse to meddle. He will try all he can to infiltrate, use his proxies, show off his military, push new initiatives on the atomic bomb project. So we will have to watch all his moves. He will, as a counter move to the move on Syria move on Israel. Still there is a lot of hatemongering against Israel, and he will try to capitalize on that. We will have to watch his moves in this area.

Then he will want to engage directly into the war in Syria, probably sending in troops and so on, these will be the best he has. The true initiation of the third world war will be this move. We can risk an escalation in relationships to Russia and China. We should, at all cost, try not to engage in any attempt to escalate the conflict. It can be done, but will be hard, and probably in vain. But we have to try.

Now Turkey is an another key ally. Turkey is a little difficult to estimate; on one hand the turkish generals are staunch democratic supporters, put there by Attaturk to protect the turkish republic, on the other hand we have Recep Erdogan who are working actively against the western alliance, so it is a dubious ally, but we will have to see how things will work out.

Then, bless you all, remember to be just and honest in all you do, this is the key to victory 🙂