Seen from a perspective of peace, the latest developments in the Middle East region has gone the wrong way. We did reach a solution in the Gaza/Israel war, that ended up in a situation where our kids can go to school, and the Gazans did not get totally destroyed, a winning scenario for both. But now the development gets to a new point, and the anti IS campaign is showing its first stage to be more difficult than we thought, we know it is difficult, but the ever changing alliances is difficult to track and stay on top off.
There are basically two difficulties right now; one is the conflict between Iran and Israel the other is the lagging support of Turkey against IS. The first is solveable, the second not. Why? Because the Persian government actually wants to make deal, but Turkey does not.
It is basically a matter of ethics. Iranians are honest basically, we have been enemies, but that was mostly due to the cold war conflict where we supported the sunnis against the shia. This opposition is not there anymore, it can flare up, and we can walk down that path, but the leaders of both the US and Russia are not really interested in the conflict, because we have another enemy, that of IS.
The world is always put in two camps. It has been communism against capitalism, but at least from the perspective of the ruling elite this is over. It is now Christian democratic/humanistic parties against the advent of an uncivilized and barbaric threat to humanity. Still there are some who have not realized this, and this is basically why the old coldwar rethorics is prevalent. But mr. Putin and mr. Barack Obama are still the best of friends, they just seem to be a little pressed on the homefront.
So the Iranian deal should be seen in this light, and is solveable, give the Iraians some space, they are willing to make a deal, so give them the benefit of the doubt.
The Turkish problem however is a huge and difficult problem, basically because the entire country is behind the islamist stance of Erdogan. The former Byzantine empire has become a neo sunni caliphate. The republic that Ataturk installed is all but disappering. This is why they do not support in Kobane, they are secretly supporting IS.
They are trying to walk a very narrow line between the support of the US and the support of IS, this leaves them with no other option than to stay neutral, as they see it.
In Egypt, the people chose Mr. Al-Sisi, in Turkey they elected Erdogan, so in effect, the people is behind the pro IS stance.
In the future the conflict with the West will increase, and we will see the strains between Turkey and the West grow stronger, it can lead to total isolation of Turkey and ultimately an armed conflict, but that will not be before three or more years.
Right now, we need to focus on the peacedeal with Iran, and make it happen.
G-d bless the will to peace.
