Strategy and the Middle East

Ahmadinejad is under pressure, for the first time in a very long span of spirit. He used to wrap us around his little finger, but now we have changed the game.

Let us look at some of the changes.

First of all, he is without the serious support he used to be. Yes the Russians are banging the drums, but everybody knows it is mostly a show off for the people in a run up to the next election. It is not an amiable thing to do, but it carries no real threat for a long-term commitment between Russia and Iran.

The russians are trying to buy time until the election is over. The problem is; the Sunni arabs are paying heavily in Syria for the reluctance of the Russians to do what is right; split the country into two.

Ahmadinejad knows this, and he therefore plays all he can on the animosity on Israel. Since Israel has basically not really reacted on the threat, he faces a serious situation. The fight between the shia and the sunni in Syria is spiralling out of control, and it angers the sunni, including all the arabs in the arab homeland. Which is off cause understandable. In the long run Ahmadinejad and his internal allies could face an arab war. In that scenario all the deftly crafted antagonism between Israel and most of Ahmadinejad friends would have no real importance anymore, it would be a huge loss of work and a strategical loss and a great scale. In Europe and the West in general all the opposition he has built between the liberal/conservative and the socialist would stop, and his militias would risk meeting a united front of socialists and liberal/conservative. Already the shift is in its making, he does not want it to move any further.

In this situation, all we have to do is sit back a little and let things develop. I would hate any kind of warfare. I understand the arabs in their desperation, but i cannot support it, because I support democratic development, not islamic kingdoms. But, I really understand the frustration.

Moving in by the arabs alone, could give the arabs respite, but it would drag them into a serious war.

It is up to the arabs themselves, do what you thing is most fair, but do not expect any support from the West.

G-d bless you all

And by the way, Israel do not worry too much about the negotiation between the Americans and Iran, it is just a sham, and it will lead to nothing. Americans want peace so much, and that is a respectable thing. You are not alone, we are with you. And as long as a move is done for peace, i hope you see it as ok 🙂

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