Syria and beyond

Talking about the Iranian threat we are in a terrible situation. We are, basically caught up between the Sunni and the Shia competition in the fertile crescent. And we need to be extremely vigilant, not to make a wrong move.

Behind the competition between the Persians and the Arabs another, much more dangerous equilibration lies; the old cold war competition between the West and the East.

Really the competition is over, seen from an ideological perspective, but in real life, practical power stratification it is still very much in existence.

What we risk in pushing United States of America into a war with Iran is a third world war along the lines of cold war stratifications.

I do not say this to make a judgement on the strategy of Israel at this point, but to give a strategical explanation to some of the reluctance of the military establishment as to why they are a bit reluctant to engage in full war.

On the other hand, a nuclear armed Iran is not acceptable to anybody, not The US, not the Saudis, not Europe, and definitely not Israel.

This leaves us little room to maneuver.

What is really the basic question is however not Iran, but the relationship between The US and Russia. If this continue along friendly lines, the Middle East situation can continue without dragging the rest of world into a full-scale war.

Now, that situation is also on the verge of a possible collapse. A hardline stance from Romney would, potentially, disrupt the good relationship the Obama administration has built up.

So, the presidential election is extremely vital to the Middle East conflict.

An attack on Iran, would therefore be possible, if it is only directed on the infrastructure of the atomic production facilities with the tacit approval of Russia. If it is possible to obtain such an approval before a potential attack, I do not know. And the consequences for the conflict between the Arabs and the Persians is very difficult to judge.

Something has to be done however. Talking to the Russians, and discussing the possibility is a way out. If the West and the East joins in an alliance and redraw their active support of the Sunni/Persian competition, the basic/cold war danger of a world war would be hindered.

That is, at least, a way to start out on the negotiations.

The Russians have hinted a little I think on the possibility. We might consider the opportunity to discuss further. We cannot support a local competition based on ethnic and religious lines. We are fighting for a free world not, not a religious world based on Sharia and ideas like that.

G-d bless peace

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