The Thucydides trap

Ok, it seems to me, that the fight that the local secret service has had against me, is kind og waning off. I mean, they have fought me, for no reason than just, that they felt like it. It does not make much sense.

Anyway, having put this problem aside, we can actually start working on some international security.

The major problem right now is China. I know that Ukraine is a great problem, but it is kind of stable. It is a bit back and forth. It is extremely costly, but apart from that, it does not seem to rock the security situation much. In fact what has happened has been, that the West has become involved in internal politics of Ukraine. I am not saying this to scorn the heroic fight of the Ukrainians, they have fought valiantly. It is to see the scope of the fight. Is it a third world war? So far, it is not. It is contained in and around the south of Ukraine, more or less.

This is good for the world, nuclear annihilation is really the great concern. This is a possibility, and we have to be very, very careful about this.

But, and that is the difficulty of the Chinese situaiton. This fight has the risk of spinning out of control.

At one side, China is a responsible player. Chinese culture is, traditionally, not aggressive, but much more protective. China IS a great civilisation.

The problem is, what has been defined as the ‘Thucydides trap’, referring to a Greek historian, who lived in the roman times, and wrote about roman history.

I think, without knowing it, that it refers to the fight between Phoenicia and Rome, that happened around 2000 years ago.

This fight was quite dangerous for both world powers of the time. Because Rome grew in power and started to push the boundaries of Karthage.

What can we learn from this historical event?

First of all, we should not over qualify our own strengths. Karthage was, at the time, much, much, much better at sailing around. Rome had good ground troops, but Karthage had been shipbuilders for thousand of years, add to this, the Phoenician were masters in manipulating the world to their end. They used the northern barbarians (us) in a showdown called the fight off the sea peoples, that set the Mediterranean area back a thousand years in the time of Homer.

So the Phoenician were this massive, extremely experienced power, that had been there for thousand of years, and were used to having a monopoly of trade.

Does that ring a bell?

Rome at the other hand, were the upcoming power, that had one thing, that the Phoenicians didn’t have; grit.

The victorious general, voted in by the public, Scipio Africanus, a great Roman hero, managed to get to the mainland of Phoenicia, and through sheer grit, defeat the complacent Phoenicians, who were used to peace.

What is the teaching we can learn from this?

It is about grit, we need to be ready for a conflict, that can and probably will continue for a long time.

So far, it is only skirmishes. But as the fight goes on, it can end in open hostilities.

Hopefully, this can be contained in smaller areas.

But, and this is where we should be realistic. What if the fight ends up in LA?

Imagine the shock.

The Second World War was on American territory. On the small island of Pearl harbour, yes, but that was American soil.

The same can happen this time around.

Have we wrapped our heads around that danger?

This was the downfall of Karthage. The leadership of Karthage, could not, in their wildest imagination, imagine roman troops in their vicinity.

When they came, they were woefully unprepared.

Only Hannibal Barca, and his family, had seen the danger, and tried to fight Rome. You probably have heard about Hannibal and his war Elephants.

Anyway, the danger is really tangible.

We need to be awake.

So far, the fight has been fought with peaceful means, but we need to be prepared for a real fight.

The ones who seem to have the best strategy, are the ones with the best card at the election.

G-d bless the will to be vigilant in the face of Chinese opposition.

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