Ok, so there is a final proposal on the table. Let’s see if we can figure out the ups and downs of it.
At the end, endless discussions is not a process that makes much sense, so I agree with the intention. Either it makes sense to make a deal or not.
So what will happen if the deal is rejected? Seen from the Israeli side it will mean the weakening of its alliances. After all it is the Israeli allies that are negotiating.
If there is no deal, it will mean, that the allies will take a step back and see what will happen.
Seen from a Palestinian Arab side, what will happen.
Well there will be no real immediate consequences. Since Hamas is allied with the Russian/Iranian side, it will not loose much.
So Hamas has a strong hand.
Where does that lead to?
It leads to the fact, that it is essentially most in the interest of Israel to make the deal.
What will make Hamas make a deal? It will only make a deal if it has a chance of survival, because in the long run, if the deal is off the table, it will give Israel the time to cut off all roads to resupply of arms and so on. The leadership of Hamas will be destroyed and the Palestinian in general will turn against Hamas. It has already begun.
The question is, will Israel trade the survival of Hamas for the ability to remain in the good grace of its allies?
G-d bless the will to finally find peace.
