The war

October 5th, 2024

Ok, let’s see if we untangle this strategy that Israel has embarked upon, and what we should perhaps do to achieve the goals that truly matter.

So far, the rethoric and the goals have been molded over Winston Churchill and his fight against the nazi regime.

The call for victory, and the implication that the enemy should be fought until it surrenders.

Well, the thing is, there is a few differences, that we need to calculate with as well.

First of all, there is the situation. Israel will have to be a partner after the war with the Arab states and the Shiite powers. This is different from the Second World War, where there were two camps. Axis and allies.

So victory ALSO has to entail some kind of positive relationship with our friends.

Since our friends are actually on a speaking relation with Iran. The US speaks with Iran all the time, and the Arabs as well. The sharp dichotomy between axis and allies are not the same in this war.

Israel WANTS the dichotomy, but it is just not there.

This is really why the war is frustrating for the Israeli.

Everyone around the war, except for Hamas and the Houthis are really not that keen on a war, but wishes to get it over with, and start the rebuilding.

So there will be no absolute surrender, because everyone around Israel are just waiting for the war to be over.

That is the truth and the fact on the ground.

Then many hope, that Trump will be that uncompromising ally and bomb Iran to the smithereens. This is not going to happen, Trump is a foreign policy dove.

He has repeatedly put his record as a peaceful president to the fore.

So he will not help Israel destroy Iran, he will probably start talking to Putin to end the Ukraine war, and try to leverage his friendship with Putin to stop the war in the Middle East as well.

He will then focus on domestic issues and make peace.

So, the basic accepted stance of the international powers seems to be, that Israel is entitled to strengthen its defense, so that another 7 October will not happen again.

This means pummeling the threatening proxies, so that they are weakened. Making safe margins between Israel and the proxies and, most important, get the hostages home.

That is really the extent of the fighting, that Israel has the ability to do, with the cards on the table.

At the same time, this cannot just go forever.

It has has to have some kind of end.

Because we have to start the vital progress that the Arabs are promising.

If you compare the importance of pummeling Hezbollah for some more time, to getting the friendships up and running with Saudi Arabia. There is absolutely no comparison. When we get there, Israel will be solidly embedded in the Middle East.

And that is a victory, that is far greater than anything we can accomplish on the battlefield.

That will make Israel a solid state with its future ahead of it.

It would accomplish the prophecy of Isaiah.

That in itself is so much of a wonder, that it is incredible.

G-d bless the will to see this development from above and get our priorities right. G-d bless the future of Israel. Happy Rosh Hashanah.

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